SpaceX Stock: Should You Buy Shares Before July 7 Deadline?

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) builds rockets, satellites and, increasingly, artificial intelligence systems, and it is now barreling toward another headline moment: inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 after the market closes on July 6. Shares trade at 162.0 dollars, up 2.83% on the day, giving the company a market cap of 2.13 trillion dollars.

That index addition matters because funds that track the Nasdaq 100 will need to buy shares to mirror the benchmark once SpaceX joins. Passive buying of that scale can nudge a stock higher in the short run, and it explains why traders have been watching this name closely since its June 12 debut at a 1.77 trillion dollar valuation.

How SPCX Has Traded Since Its Debut

The stock listed at 135 dollars and closed its first day near 160.95 dollars, a level that has acted as something of a floor ever since. At 162.0 dollars, shares sit right around that early support and about 17% above the original listing price. The 52 week range tells the wilder part of the story: a low of 21.62 dollars against a high of 225.64 dollars, a spread that reflects just how new and unsettled the trading history still is.

Valuation, Momentum and Yield: Reading SpaceX's Numbers

An RSI of 69.54 puts SPCX right at the edge of overbought territory, a sign that buying pressure has been strong but may be getting stretched. The dividend yield of 0.3% is modest, more a courtesy to shareholders than a reason to hold the stock. As for earnings, the company posted a net loss of roughly 4.9 billion dollars last year on sales of about 18.7 billion dollars, so a traditional P/E and EPS reading is not meaningful here. That combination, a 2.13 trillion dollar valuation resting on a business that is still losing money, is the central tension in this story.

The Bull Case for Nasdaq 100 Inclusion

Supporters point to forced buying from index funds as a near term tailwind, plus the likelihood that SpaceX eventually lands in other major indexes down the road. Revenue growth has also been strong, with last year's sales climbing 33%, and there is reason to expect that pace to continue or accelerate as the company expands its AI ambitions alongside its space business.

The Bear Case Around Growth Dependent Pricing

The skepticism centers on how much of that growth is already baked into the share price. Heavy spending on the AI segment could push this year's net loss well past last year's 4.9 billion dollar figure, even as revenue climbs. SpaceX also does not trade in isolation. Broader macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical developments will keep shaping sentiment toward high multiple, growth dependent names like this one, regardless of what index event is on the calendar.

What Happens After the Index Money Arrives?

Once the Nasdaq 100 rebalancing trade is done and the forced buying fades, the stock will be left to trade on its own fundamentals again. Whether the current price can hold without that mechanical support, given a business still deep in the red, is the question investors are left sitting with heading into July 7.