Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 215,000, Beating Forecasts

Weekly jobless claims dropped to 215,000 for the week ending July 4, the Labor Department said Thursday, a decline of 2,000 from the prior week's revised figure of 217,000. The number came in below what most forecasters expected, suggesting layoffs remain contained even as hiring slows.

At a Glance

• Initial claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending July 4, down 2,000 from a revised 217,000.
• Forecasters had expected higher numbers: FactSet projected 220,000, the Wall Street Journal's survey called for 218,000, and Bloomberg's panel expected 217,000.
• The four week moving average slipped to 218,750, down 3,750.
• Continuing claims rose to 1.81 million for the week ending June 27, still historically low.
• Unadjusted claims rose by nearly 10,000, mostly driven by California.

What the Weekly Jobless Claims Numbers Show

Economists watch weekly jobless claims closely because they offer one of the freshest snapshots available of how many workers are being let go. This week's dip suggests employers, on balance, are still holding onto the staff they have. The four week moving average, which smooths out weekly noise, also ticked down, reinforcing that read.

Continuing claims tell a slightly different story. Those rose by 8,000 to 1.81 million for the week ending June 27. That's a modest increase, and the level remains low by historical standards, but it hints that people who lose their jobs may be taking a bit longer to land new ones.

On an unadjusted basis, claims climbed by close to 10,000, according to Bloomberg data, with California responsible for nearly all of that jump. A year earlier, the unadjusted total stood at 241,361, so the current figure is running below where it was last summer.

A Cooling Job Market That Hasn't Cracked

This claims report lands just after a weak June jobs reading, where employers added only 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, well short of the 115,000 economists had penciled in. The unemployment rate actually dipped from 4.3% to 4.2%, but that improvement was mostly a function of people leaving the labor force rather than finding work. April and May payroll figures were also revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs.

Despite that softer hiring picture, companies don't appear to be rushing toward mass layoffs. Analysts have taken to calling the current environment